Haitong Lecture
影響認股證價格因素 第三節

影響認股證價格因素

之前提過窩輪的價值由內在值及時間值組成,亦有多個因素會影響窩輪價格。

相關資產價格

以認講證(Call輪)為例,當一隻價內輪的相關資產價格上升,內在值就會提升,輪價亦上升。如果價外輪,當相關資產價格上升,即使未升至行使價,但升穿行使價的機會增加,輪價理論上都會提升。而認沽證(Put輪)情況就相反。

時間值

其次是窩輪的時間值。窩輪的年期愈長,時間值就愈大,代表窩輪的價格就愈高。不過窩輪的時間值會隨時間流失,並在到期日下跌至零。距離到期日三個月或以下的窩輪,時間值流失相對快,風險亦較高。

引伸波幅 (Implied Volatility)

至於引伸波幅是市場對正股價格未來波動性的預測,假設其他因素不變,當波幅上升時,窩輪價格一般會上揚。相反,當波幅下跌,其價格一般會下滑。

股息 (Dividend)

而正股的價格會在除息日隨派息向下調整,不過發行商一早出輪前已考慮相關因素。可是若正股公布的實際派息水平超出預期,或派特別息。假設其他因素不變,Call輪的價格會因股息上升而下跌,相反Put輪的價格則會上升。

利率 (Interest rate)

至於利率升跌亦會影響窩輪的價格。利率可代表投資窩輪能節省多少的機會成本。利率上升可視為發行商代投資者持有正股的成本增加,Call 輪價格會上升。相反Put輪會在利率上升時,令投資者減少收益機會,價格會下跌。

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